XIAOMI(01810) 申万宏源·2024-11-17 07:24Investment Rating - Buy rating (首次覆盖) [3][5] Core Views - Xiaomi's strategic shift towards high-end products and its business model evolution are key drivers for future growth [3] - The company's organizational and management changes support its high-end strategy [3] - Xiaomi's 3C business is entering a positive cycle, with smartphone shipments reaching 146 million units in 2023, ranking third globally [4] - The integration of MIUI into Hyper OS and the development of Xiaomi SU7 are significant milestones in Xiaomi's ecosystem strategy [4] - Xiaomi's high-end strategy is expected to enhance its financial metrics, including growth rate, profit margin, R&D, and valuation multiples [3] Business Segments Smartphones - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in 2023 were 146 million units, ranking third globally [4] - The high-end smartphone segment accounted for 22.1% of total shipments in Q2 2024 [12] - Xiaomi's smartphone ASP in China increased by over 19% in 2023, reaching a historical high [101] IoT and Lifestyle Products - Xiaomi's home appliance business revenue grew by 40% in 2023, with shipments of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines reaching record highs [4] - The IoT and lifestyle products segment is expected to grow by 18% in 2024, reaching RMB 94.3 billion [11] Internet Services - Xiaomi's internet services revenue is projected to grow by 12% in 2024, reaching RMB 33.9 billion [11] - The high-end smartphone segment contributes significantly to internet services, with LTV being twice that of non-premium smartphones [146] Smart Electric Vehicles - Xiaomi SU7, the company's first electric vehicle, achieved sales of over 10,000 units for five consecutive months in 2024 [4] - Xiaomi plans to deliver 120,000 units of SU7 in 2024, with a production capacity of 190,000 units in the first phase [124][130] - The company has invested heavily in R&D for its electric vehicle business, with a team of 3,400 engineers and over RMB 10 billion in R&D expenses [141] Financial Projections - Xiaomi's total revenue is expected to grow by 28% in 2024, reaching RMB 347.4 billion [5] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase by 26% in 2024, reaching RMB 24.3 billion [5] - The company's smartphone business revenue is expected to grow by 19% in 2024, reaching RMB 187.3 billion [10] - The IoT and lifestyle products segment is projected to grow by 18% in 2024, reaching RMB 94.3 billion [11] - Internet services revenue is expected to grow by 12% in 2024, reaching RMB 33.9 billion [11] - The smart electric vehicle business is projected to generate RMB 30.4 billion in revenue in 2024, with a delivery target of 129,600 units [11] Valuation - Xiaomi's "Smartphone x AIoT" segment is valued at RMB 7,165 billion based on a 22x PE multiple for 2025E adjusted net profit of RMB 332 billion [5] - The smart electric vehicle and innovation business segment is valued at RMB 674 billion based on a 0.9x PS multiple for 2025E revenue of RMB 728 billion [5] - The target market capitalization for 2025E is RMB 7,839 billion (HK 33.9 per share, representing a 21% upside [5]