印度宏观：10月消费者物价指数追踪

Inflation Overview - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October reached 6.21%, marking a 14-month high and exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target range of 2%-6%[3] - Food inflation surged to 10.87%, with vegetable inflation skyrocketing to 42.18% due to a low base effect[3][8] - Pulses and their products also saw a significant increase in inflation at 7.43% despite last year's high base[3][8] Monetary Policy Implications - The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has shifted from a hawkish stance to a more neutral position, indicating that rate cuts are unlikely until inflation consistently falls below 4%[3] - Given the recent inflation spike, the likelihood of a rate cut in the upcoming December meeting is low, with potential cuts expected in the first half of 2025[3] Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - Urban consumption has shown signs of weakness, while private sector capital expenditure in infrastructure has not kept pace with government spending[3] - The government is taking measures to stabilize vegetable prices, particularly onions, which are a major contributor to food inflation[3][8] Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food prices, was recorded at 3.7% in October, remaining below the 4% threshold for the past year[3]