房地产行业2024年10月统计局数据点评：10月销售基本面明显改善，新开工与投资持续走弱

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1]. Core Viewpoints - The sales fundamentals in October 2024 showed significant improvement, with new construction and investment continuing [1]. - The report highlights that while the year-on-year decline in sales area has narrowed significantly, the absolute sales volume remains at the lowest level since 2009 [1]. - The report anticipates continued recovery in sales for November and December, driven by low base effects from the previous year and ongoing policy support [1]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In October 2024, the sales area was 76.46 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, a significant improvement from the previous month's decline of 11.0% [1]. - The sales amount reached 797.5 billion yuan, down 1.0% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 15.3 percentage points compared to September [1]. - The average selling price of commercial housing in October was 10,430 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.3% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [1]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The broad inventory of residential properties decreased to 1.86 billion square meters, down 1.5% month-on-month and 11.7% year-on-year [1]. - The inventory turnover period was reported at 27.4 months, indicating a slight easing of inventory pressure [1]. Investment and Construction - Real estate development investment in October was 762.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 12.3%, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2014 [1]. - New construction area in October was 51.76 million square meters, down 26.7% year-on-year, indicating a continued contraction in supply [1]. Developer Financing - Total funds received by developers in October amounted to 833.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to previous months [1]. - The report notes that the improvement in sales collections has positively impacted the funding situation for developers [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment: 1. Stocks expected to rebound due to policy easing, such as Vanke A and Longfor Group [1]. 2. Stocks with strong policy support targeting core city layouts, including Greentown China and China Merchants Shekou [1].