家电行业前瞻：2024Q4出口有望贡献空调增长主动力，内销或拉动家用制冷需求提升

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The air conditioning sector is anticipated to see export growth as the main driver in Q4 2024, with a projected increase of 17% in exports due to overseas shopping events like Black Friday. Domestic sales are expected to benefit from national subsidy policies and the Double Eleven shopping festival, leading to an 11% increase [4]. - The household refrigeration demand is expected to rise, driven by domestic consumption incentives and the Double Eleven event, with a projected growth of 9% in Q4 2024 [5]. - The air source heat pump industry may face pressure with a forecasted decline of 9% in demand, while exports are expected to remain stable due to a low base effect [5]. Summary by Category Air Conditioning Industry - Household air conditioning sales are projected to reach 3,813 million units in Q4 2024, with domestic sales at 1,813 million units (up 11%) and exports at 2,000 million units (up 17%) [11]. - The central air conditioning segment is expected to see a decline in domestic sales by 8%, while exports may grow by 25% [11]. - Large chiller units are forecasted to experience a 10% decline in domestic sales, but exports are expected to grow by 43% [11]. Refrigeration Industry - Household refrigeration sales are expected to reach 3,216 million units in Q4 2024, with domestic sales increasing by 9% [11]. - Light commercial refrigeration is projected to decline by 2%, while industrial refrigeration may see a 5% decrease [11]. Electrical Appliances Industry - The washing machine segment is expected to see a 5% increase in domestic sales, while exports may also grow by 5% [5]. - The dishwasher segment is projected to grow by 11% in domestic sales, with exports expected to increase by 5% [5]. - Kitchen appliances are anticipated to see a slight decline in domestic sales by 2%, but exports may continue to rise by 6% [5].