经济形势跟踪：预期效应跑在政策直接效果前面

Economic Outlook - As of October 2024, the GDP growth forecast for Q4 has been slightly adjusted to 4.8%, up from the previous estimate of 4.6% for Q3, but still below the annual target of 5%[1][17] - The improvement in economic data since September is primarily driven by enhanced expectations rather than direct policy effects, indicating a need for timely monetary stimulus to sustain growth[1][3][16] Manufacturing and Investment - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in October, marking the first increase above the neutral level in six months, largely due to proactive inventory restocking by businesses[3][4] - Real estate sales and retail consumption showed significant recovery in October, with retail sales rebounding more strongly in goods than in dining services[5][10] Real Estate Sector - Despite improvements in real estate sales, new construction areas have declined, reflecting ongoing constraints from policies aimed at controlling new developments[4][14] - The share of land transfer revenue in GDP has decreased from 8.3% in 2020 to 4.6% in 2023, indicating increasing fiscal pressure on local governments[14][17] Financing and Monetary Policy - The issuance of special bonds remains high, but overall financing growth is below levels seen in the past three years, suggesting persistent weakness in the demand for financing in the real economy[12][14] - The current monetary easing measures have primarily improved liquidity in financial markets rather than directly stabilizing economic growth, highlighting the importance of fiscal policy[14][21] Market Sentiment - The stock market has shown signs of recovery, with significant activity in margin trading, reflecting increased risk appetite among investors[21][24] - The potential for further depreciation of the RMB is a concern, particularly with the recent political developments in the U.S., which may impact market confidence[21][27]