10月经济数据点评：稳增长扬长补短

Economic Performance - In October, industrial added value increased by 5.3% year-on-year, slightly down from September and below market expectations[1] - Retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year in October, up 1.6 percentage points from September, indicating a rebound in consumer spending[1] - Fixed asset investment growth remained steady at 3.4% year-on-year for the first ten months, with private investment declining by 0.3%[1] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing sector added value increased by 9.3% year-on-year, while real estate investment fell by 10.3%[1] - In the first ten months, high-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.1%, while the mining industry grew by 3.1%[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods, excluding automobiles, rose by 4.9% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in goods consumption[10] Investment Trends - Real estate investment continues to be a major drag on overall fixed asset investment, with new construction area down by 22.6% year-on-year[24] - The proportion of personal mortgage loans in real estate funding sources increased to 14.3%, while domestic loans decreased to 14.2%[24] - Infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable due to government support, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.3%[20] Policy Outlook - Recent macroeconomic policies aim to stabilize growth, focusing on seasonal economic characteristics and current weaknesses[1] - Future monitoring will include corporate liquidity and consumer spending data for November and December, as well as potential impacts from international economic conditions[1] - There is a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut if liquidity and consumption data remain weak in the coming months[1]