2024年10月统计局房地产数据点评：销售同比降幅明显收窄，增量政策作用显现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the real estate industry, indicating that the expected overall return will be between -5% and 5% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [43]. Core Insights - The year-on-year decline in real estate sales has significantly narrowed, with October 2024 showing a 1.9% decrease in sales area compared to the previous year, a substantial improvement of 10.1 percentage points from the previous month [11]. - The cumulative sales area for the first ten months of 2024 reached 77,930 million square meters, down 15.8% year-on-year, but this is a 1.3 percentage point improvement from the first nine months [11]. - The cumulative sales amount for the same period was 76,855 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.9% year-on-year decline, which is 1.8 percentage points better than the previous nine months [11]. - The improvement in sales is attributed to the implementation of various regulatory policies, increased buyer confidence, and the traditional peak sales season in September and October [11]. Sales Summary - In October 2024, the sales area for new homes in 70 major cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with first-tier cities showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a stabilization in prices [21][23]. - The year-on-year decline in sales area and amount has narrowed across all regions, with the central region showing the most significant improvement [17]. Price Summary - The price index for new homes in 70 major cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month in October, with first-tier cities experiencing a smaller decline compared to second and third-tier cities [21]. - The year-on-year price decline for new homes in October was 6.2%, with first-tier cities showing a decrease of 4.6% [21]. Development Investment Summary - Cumulative development investment from January to October 2024 was 86,309 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year, with a monthly investment of 7,629 billion yuan in October, reflecting a 9.2% decline [29]. - New construction area for the first ten months was 61,227 million square meters, down 22.6% year-on-year, with October's new construction area decreasing by 27.4% [34]. - The report notes that the speed of project completions has increased, with October's completion area down 19.7%, a significant narrowing of the decline compared to September [38]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent series of supportive policies from central and local governments have led to a recovery in the market, with increased buyer interest and improved sales metrics [40]. - The report recommends monitoring related local state-owned enterprises and developers as the effects of these policies continue to unfold [40].