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策略周报:需求端边际改善,市场情绪有所降温
HWABAO SECURITIES·2024-11-17 14:42

Group 1 - The report indicates a marginal improvement in demand due to a series of policy measures, with new social financing in October reaching 1.4 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 448.3 billion, and a social financing stock growth rate declining by 0.2 percentage points to 7.8% [13][15]. - Retail sales in October increased by 4.8% year-on-year, up from 3.6% in the previous month, showing signs of recovery in domestic demand [13][15]. - Industrial value-added in October grew by 5.3% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, while fixed asset investment from January to October maintained a stable year-on-year growth of 3.4% [13][15]. Group 2 - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market from November 11 to November 15 was 21,819.67 billion, a decrease of 2,167.54 billion from the previous week, indicating a cooling in market trading sentiment [15][36]. - On November 13, the Ministry of Finance and other departments announced increased tax incentives for housing transactions to support housing demand, but market enthusiasm declined due to poor overseas market performance and rumors [15][36]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued guidelines for market value management, which are expected to enhance the investment value of listed companies and stabilize market sentiment [15][36]. Group 3 - The report highlights that the valuation levels of major A-share indices have generally decreased, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the CSI 500 experiencing the most significant declines [18][24]. - A-share risk premium has decreased alongside a slight increase in the equity-bond price ratio, indicating a shift in market dynamics [25][31]. - The report notes a recovery in industry rotation speed, although it remains at a low level, with funds beginning to focus on other sectors [38].