国债期货周报：美联储暂停降息国债周五盘后回调

Economic Indicators - The issuance of 1 trillion special government bonds has been completed, with a subsequent 2 trillion hidden debt replacement anticipated by the market[1] - M2 growth in October was 7.5% year-on-year, while social financing growth was 7.8% year-on-year[1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a net 187.1 billion yuan this week[1] Federal Reserve and Currency Impact - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell acknowledged the consideration of pausing interest rate cuts in December, which has led to a strong dollar putting pressure on the RMB/USD exchange rate[1] - The average five-day DR-007 rate was 1.72%, and the R-007 rate was 1.86%[1] Bond Market Trends - As of November 15, TS2412 rose by 0.01%, TF2312 by 0.09%, T2412 by 0.17%, and TL2412 by 0.13%[1] - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with yields rising sharply after Friday's close due to supply shocks, potentially leading to a significant drop in futures on Monday[1] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that government bond futures remain suitable for low-cost accumulation, with a focus on long-term bonds due to significant yield spreads[1] - Economic data indicates a slight stabilization, with expectations for marginal economic improvement in Q4, which could negatively impact bonds[1]