中银证券：中银晨会聚焦-20241118

Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in housing prices in major cities, particularly in first-tier cities where second-hand housing prices have turned positive for the first time in 17 months [8][9][10] - The overall economic situation is improving, with GDP growth forecasted to slightly rise to 4.8% in Q4 2024, although it remains below the initial target of 5% for the year [2][3] Economic Overview - Economic data for October shows a mixed performance; retail sales growth exceeded expectations at 4.8%, while industrial output and fixed asset investment growth were slightly below market expectations [3][5] - Industrial value-added in October grew by 5.3%, with high-tech industries seeing a notable increase of 9.1% [3] - Fixed asset investment for January to October showed a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with manufacturing investment up by 9.3% and real estate investment down by 10.3% [4][12] Real Estate Market Analysis - In October, new home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.5%, while second-hand home prices also decreased by 0.5%, but the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous months [8][9] - The report highlights that the number of cities experiencing price declines has decreased, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [9] - Sales volume in October reached 7.646 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, a significant improvement from the previous month's decline of 11.0% [12][13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment lines: 1) stocks expected to benefit from policy easing and showing signs of recovery, such as Vanke A and China Overseas Land & Investment; 2) companies with strong positions in core cities, like Greentown China and China Merchants Shekou [10][18] - The anticipated recovery in sales and the impact of supportive policies are expected to create investment opportunities in the real estate sector in Q4 2024 [10][18]