CH ENERGY ENG(601868) 东方财富·2024-11-18 02:23Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [7] Core Views - The company is a leading player in traditional energy construction, particularly in thermal power, with a market share exceeding 30% in large hydropower projects and over 90% in nuclear power conventional island design [1] - Thermal power construction demand is expected to remain high, while new energy construction demand is projected to grow steadily [2] - The company's dual-drive strategy of EPC construction and investment operations is expected to open up growth opportunities, with new energy and comprehensive smart energy engineering contracts reaching RMB 529.17 billion in 2023, up 26.1% YoY [2] - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the "Four New" strategy (new energy, new infrastructure, new industries, new materials) and is expected to see valuation recovery due to its low historical valuation and potential state-owned enterprise reforms [7] Industry Analysis - Thermal power construction is expected to remain strong, with China's coal-based energy structure and the "Three 80 Million" target driving demand [37] - New energy construction, including pumped storage, wind, and solar, is accelerating, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" targeting 62GW of pumped storage by 2025 and 120GW by 2030 [54] - The market share of central state-owned enterprises is expected to increase due to their strong policy alignment and financial backing [61] Company Analysis - The company has a strong track record in thermal power construction, with new contracts in 2023 reaching RMB 198.57 billion, up 7.5% YoY [63] - The company is actively expanding its new energy business, with new energy and comprehensive smart energy contracts reaching RMB 529.17 billion in 2023, up 26.1% YoY [69] - The company is also investing in hydrogen energy and energy storage, with several projects and agreements already signed [77] - The company's civil explosives business is expected to benefit from high demand in mining and infrastructure sectors [78] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 406.03 billion in 2023 to RMB 500.26 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 7.2% [8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 7.99 billion in 2023 to RMB 10.32 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.0% [8] - The company's valuation is currently at historical lows, with a PE TTM of 11.9x and PB of 1.0x as of November 14, 2024 [99] Potential Catalysts - Acceleration in thermal power construction [13] - Acceleration in new energy construction [13] - Breakthroughs in hydrogen energy technology [13] - Release of state-owned enterprise reform expectations [13]