CSI Solar(688472) 长江证券·2024-11-18 02:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 34.178 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.63%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.955 billion yuan, down 31.17% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 12.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.14%. The net profit for Q3 was 716 million yuan, down 21.99% year-on-year but up 8.34% quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s Q3 shipments were 8.4 GW, slightly below previous guidance due to strategic adjustments to reduce loss-making orders. The proportion of shipments to the U.S. remained high, exceeding prior expectations. The introduction of tariffs in the U.S. is expected to slightly decrease the net profit per watt compared to Q2, but it remains significantly better than peers [6]. Storage Business - In Q3, the company shipped 1.8 GWh of storage products, exceeding previous guidance, with profitability reaching a historical high. The gross margin and net profit per unit are expected to be higher than in the first half of the year, significantly outperforming expectations [6]. Financial Health - The company recorded asset impairment and credit impairment losses totaling 200 million yuan in Q3, impacting reported profits. Other income was approximately 260 million yuan, mainly from government subsidies. The expense ratio for Q3 was 7.7%, within a reasonable range, and operating cash flow was 1.01 billion yuan, indicating good financial health [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.9 billion yuan and 4.5 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18 and 12 times [7]. The U.S. component market and storage business advantages are expected to significantly enhance performance compared to peers [6].