纯碱周报-宏观驱动暂告一段落，回归弱势基本面

Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash opened at 1500 CNY/ton, peaked at 1538 CNY/ton, and closed at 1570 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly increase of 4.73%[4] - Soda ash production was 695,300 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons week-on-week, with a comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 83.41%, down by 1.79 percentage points[4] - Inventory levels rose to 1,648,100 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons week-on-week, while pending orders decreased to around 11 days[4] Fundamental Analysis - The current contradiction lies between strong macro pricing expectations and weak realities of high inventory and production capacity[4] - The domestic real estate cycle is suppressing demand for construction glass, impacting soda ash pricing expectations[4] - Despite a rigid demand for soda ash, new supply from projects like Yuxing Alkali and Jingshan is leading to oversupply, with additional capacity expected in 2025[4] Summary and Outlook - The market direction is expected to experience wide fluctuations[4] - Core logic indicates a continuous decline in downstream demand, making future oversupply difficult to reverse[4] - Risks include large-scale cold repairs in float glass production and underperformance of emerging downstream industries[4]