黑色周报：宏观预期略转弱，过剩预期渐增强

Supply Evaluation - Daily average pig iron production is 2.36 million tons, and crude steel production is 2.66 million tons[1] - Total inventory of five major steel products is 12.04 million tons, with rebar inventory at 4.45 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory at 3.22 million tons[1] - Tangshan steel billet cost is 3,064 CNY, with iron ore prices declining and coking coal prices under pressure[1] Demand Evaluation - Apparent consumption of five major steel products is 8.77 million tons, with rebar consumption at 2.31 million tons and hot-rolled coil consumption at 3.17 million tons[1] - Demand for construction steel is expected to weaken as the peak season ends, while industrial steel demand remains high[1] Market Sentiment - Short-term market sentiment is weak due to a cooling macro environment and cautious speculative demand[1] - Long-term expectations indicate a warming macro environment before the New Year, but market sentiment may weaken as downstream consumption enters the off-season[1] Price Trends - Rebar (RB2501) price has dropped below 3,300 CNY, with expectations of weak adjustments around this level[3] - Hot-rolled coil (HC2501) price is expected to remain around 3,400 CNY, with a potential shift to a discount[3] Inventory Pressure - Inventory pressure for rebar is low, but overall market sentiment remains cautious due to high production levels[1] - Coking coal inventory remains high, with market pressure expected to persist in the short term[24]