2024年第四季度经济报告（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, indicating a more dovish outlook for future rate cuts [3][5] - The U.S. GDP growth for Q2 2024 was reported at 3.0%, significantly above the market consensus of 2.0%, reflecting a strong economy [7] - Inflation is on a downward trend, with the consumer price index (CPI) at 2.4% year-over-year as of September 2024, down from 3.0% in June 2024 [20] - Business sentiment has declined further below average, particularly in manufacturing, while services have shown signs of strengthening [29] Domestic Economy - Job growth averaged approximately 186,000 per month in Q3 2024, with the unemployment rate fluctuating between 4.1% and 4.3% [12] - Retail sales, excluding vehicles, remained flat from Q2 2024 to Q3 2024, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [17] - The housing market is experiencing a slump in sales despite an increase in existing home supply, attributed to high median home prices [25] Foreign Exchange - The interest rate advantage of the USD compared to developed economy currencies is expected to narrow, putting downward pressure on the USD [8][39] Central Banks and Monetary Policy - The FOMC has revised its dot plot to reflect further rate cuts through 2025, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive easing policy [4][6] - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), rose to 2.7% year-over-year in August 2024, down from 3.8% in August 2023 [6][20] Corporate Bond Market - Gross issuance of investment-grade (IG) bonds reached a record $200 billion in September 2024, with year-to-date issuance already exceeding totals from 2023 and 2022 [57] - Credit performance has improved, with both investment-grade and high-yield credit spreads ending Q3 2024 marginally tighter [9] Economic Forecasts - The report projects U.S. real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2024, with core PCE expected to be 2.7% [49] - Unemployment rates are projected to rise slightly to 4.4% in 2025 before decreasing to 4.3% in 2026 [49]