策略周报：宏观经济延续回暖态势

Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of recovery, with significant acceleration in the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales, increasing by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous value, driven by the effectiveness of the old-for-new consumption policy and the boost from the "Golden Week" holiday [3][17]. - Industrial production remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% in October, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing sector leads with a growth rate of 5.4%, supported by improvements in the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors, which grew by 6.6% and 9.4% respectively [17][18]. Bond Market - As of November 15, the one-year AA-AAA credit spread narrowed by 6.51 basis points to 22.62 basis points, while the three-year AA-AAA credit spread narrowed by 4.99 basis points to 29.79 basis points. The ten-year minus one-year government bond yield spread widened by 0.68 basis points to 70.73 basis points, suggesting a focus on longer-duration bonds with moderate credit ratings [5][19]. Commodity Market Steel and Cement - As of November 15, the operating rate of short-process steel mills was 67.71%, a slight increase, while long-process steel mills remained steady at 55.00%. The cement price index reached 166.44, higher than the previous week, indicating potential stabilization and recovery in cement prices due to fixed asset investment [4][23]. Pork and Vegetables - The average wholesale price of pork was 23.85 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.39 yuan from the previous week but up by 17.66% year-on-year. The average wholesale price of six monitored fruits was 7.18 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.04 yuan week-on-week but up by 5.74% year-on-year. The average price of 28 monitored vegetables was 5.05 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.15 yuan week-on-week but up by 10.75% year-on-year [24][26]. A-Share Market Index and Industry Performance - As of November 15, major indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.52%, the CSI 300 down 3.29%, and the Shenzhen Component down 3.70%. The media sector was the only one to see an increase, rising by 1.07%, while real estate and defense sectors faced significant declines of -8.92% and -8.79% respectively [6][30]. Current Valuation - The overall market valuation is considered reasonable, with the Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-earnings ratio at 14.37 times, within the historical 28.76% percentile. The ChiNext Index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 34.46 times, within the historical 14.53% percentile, indicating potential investment value [30][31]. Market Activity - The trading activity remains high, with an average trading volume of 880.44 billion yuan for the Shanghai Composite Index and 1,266.11 billion yuan for the Shenzhen Component, totaling 2,146.55 billion yuan. The total number of newly established funds rose to 44.099 billion shares, indicating a rebound in market activity [33].