机械工业行业季报：24Q3总结：整体阶段性承压；政策加码下期待需求修复、盈利提升

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the machinery industry [2] Core Views - The machinery sector faced pressure in 2024Q1-Q3, with a decline in revenue and net profit, particularly in Q3 [2] - Sub-sectors such as semiconductor equipment, boiler equipment, and export consumer chains showed strong performance in terms of revenue and net profit growth [3][4] - Industrial economic recovery is expected, supported by fiscal policies and potential opportunities in real estate and government debt resolution [5] Key Financial Metrics - In 2024Q1-Q3, the machinery industry's median revenue growth was +5.06%, while net profit growth was -6.90% [2] - The industry's gross margin was 27.88%, down 0.09 percentage points year-over-year (YoY), and the net margin was 7.45%, down 1.19 percentage points YoY [2] - In 2024Q3, the industry's median revenue growth was +3.52%, and net profit growth was -4.41%, with a gross margin of 28.16% and a net margin of 6.39% [2] Sub-Sector Performance - Semiconductor equipment, nuclear power equipment, and export consumer chains were among the top-performing sub-sectors in terms of revenue growth in 2024Q1-Q3 [3] - Boiler equipment, export consumer chains, and semiconductor equipment led in net profit growth during the same period [3] - In 2024Q3, boiler equipment, scientific instruments, and semiconductor equipment showed the highest net profit growth [4] Industrial Economic Outlook - Manufacturing PMI in October 2024 was 50.1%, indicating a recovery in industrial economic activity [5] - Fiscal policies are expected to support economic growth, with measures to address local government debt and stabilize the real estate market [5] Raw Material and Cost Factors - Steel prices have declined since January 2024, with the price index at 95.75 on October 25, 2024, down 10.15% YoY [7] - Aluminum prices have risen, with LME aluminum spot settlement price at $2,600.5 per ton on October 25, 2024, up 19.81% YoY [7] - Brent crude oil futures remained volatile, with a settlement price of $76.05 per barrel on October 25, 2024, down 15.95% YoY [7] Valuation and Key Sectors - As of October 31, 2024, the machinery industry's valuation is in the upper-middle range among industries, with a rolling P/E ratio of 25.57x [8] - Key sectors include terminal investment-related sectors (e.g., construction machinery, rail equipment), energy equipment (e.g., photovoltaic, wind power), and emerging industries (e.g., semiconductor equipment, scientific instruments) [8]