高盛闭门会：2025 年中国房地产展望，房地产触底在望

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the Chinese real estate market, with a focus on selective opportunities in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and high-quality developers [19] Core Views - The Chinese real estate market is expected to bottom out by 2025, with housing prices stabilizing by the end of 2025 [1] - New construction and investment are projected to enter a downward cycle from 2026 to 2027, with double-digit declines in new projects [1] - The secondary housing market is expected to see median annual growth in transaction volume, with prices stabilizing by late 2025 to early 2026 and a 2% increase by 2027 [1][3] - Government intervention, including inventory purchases and financial support, is crucial to stabilize the market, with an estimated RMB 4 trillion needed to reduce leverage and RMB 2 trillion to address funding gaps [1][10] - The supply structure is shifting towards secondary housing, which will account for over 60% of new supply in the next three years, posing challenges for inventory management [1][6] Market Dynamics - The secondary housing market is concentrated in first- and second-tier cities, with prices expected to return to late 2024 levels by 2026 and grow slightly in 2027 [3] - Without additional fiscal stimulus, the inventory cycle for both primary and secondary housing would require 21 months to clear by the end of 2027, but with RMB 2 trillion in stimulus, this could be reduced to 15-16 months [7] - A 15-16 month inventory level is a critical condition for price stabilization, with RMB 2 trillion needed to achieve this target [8] Financial and Debt Overview - The real estate industry's total debt, excluding presales, is approximately USD 8 trillion (RMB 50+ trillion), with over 30% related to construction in progress and land reserves [9] - Asset turnover has dropped below 10%, significantly lower than the 15% seen in 2014-2015, reflecting difficulties in debt reduction amid falling prices and shrinking transaction volumes [9] - An additional RMB 2 trillion is needed to address funding gaps for pre-sold projects that are insolvent, with an estimated 6 billion square meters requiring completion [10] Policy and Interest Rate Impact - A reduction in mortgage interest rates to 2% is a key condition for price stabilization, but a reversal in the macroeconomic cycle is necessary for sustained price growth [1][12] - Current mortgage rates remain high, with household leverage rising from 20% in 2014-2015 to 66%, and a debt service ratio exceeding 15% [11] Developer Performance and Valuation - Developers' sales cash profits are expected to stabilize from 2025 to 2027, but market expectations suggest potential additional price declines of 15-20% [13] - SOE developers trade at an average of 0.5x forward price-to-book (PB) ratio, implying a 30% inventory impairment risk [13] - Historically, developer stock prices bottom out 2-4 years before housing prices, with significant rebounds during policy easing periods [14] Developer Fundamentals and Ratings - Developers with strong project reserves in core cities, such as China Overseas and Greentown, are better positioned to benefit from market recovery [15] - Investment properties and balance sheet health are key factors in assessing developer resilience, with companies like China Resources and Longfor ranking highly [15] - Ratings adjustments include maintaining "Buy" ratings for China Resources Land and China Overseas, while downgrading Vanke and Poly Development due to fundamental vulnerabilities [19] Property Management Sector - Light-asset property management companies, such as China Resources Mixc Living and Greentown Service, are expected to see improved cash profits and reduced receivables pressure [20] - Core profit growth of 20% and high dividend yields of 55% are projected for these companies over the next two years [20] Market Sentiment and Transaction Trends - Transaction volume rebounds are expected to last until the end of 2023 without significant policy support, with secondary housing transactions remaining at historically high levels [21] - Investors remain cautious, with limited participation in developer stocks due to short and sharp rebounds during easing cycles [22] Macroeconomic and Industry Outlook - Investors are cautious about the macroeconomic and industry outlook, with expectations for large-scale government stimulus to help China emerge from the current downturn [24] - Industrial utilization rates need to rise above 80%, requiring retail consumption growth of over 20%, which poses significant challenges [23] Developer and Property Management Feedback - Market feedback on SOE developers like China Resources and China Overseas has been mixed, with concerns over declining profit margins for new land acquisitions [25] - Property management companies face ongoing challenges with receivables, with significant improvements unlikely until 2024 [26]