光伏行业：重视光伏行业底部拐点机会

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the photovoltaic (PV) industry, indicating a turning point after a prolonged price decline, with a focus on quality and technology innovation [28]. Core Insights - The PV industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with signs of a turning point emerging. The industry has experienced a significant price decline over nearly two years, and there is a consensus to avoid price competition, emphasizing quality and technology [28][9]. - Domestic demand for PV is expected to grow steadily, supported by frequent government policies aimed at promoting renewable energy. The report highlights that the newly installed capacity in China reached 160.88 GW in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [12][13]. - New technologies are gaining support in bidding processes, which is expected to facilitate rapid promotion. The report notes that new technologies are being recognized for their efficiency and profitability, with significant bidding projects already underway [19][23]. Summary by Sections 1. PV Cycle Bottom and Turning Point Signals - The industry is recognized to be at the bottom of its cycle, with a sample of 52 PV companies showing a net profit of -28.11 billion yuan in Q2 2024, improving to 6.69 billion yuan in Q3 2024. The report indicates that polysilicon prices have stabilized, suggesting a potential recovery [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of industry self-discipline, with multiple meetings held to address issues such as price competition and to promote advanced technology applications [6]. 2. PV Demand: Frequent Domestic Policies and Sustainable Growth - The report outlines several government initiatives aimed at supporting the renewable energy sector, including the 2024-2025 energy conservation and carbon reduction action plan, which provides a framework for achieving dual carbon goals [12][14]. - The report forecasts that domestic installed capacity will reach 250 GW in 2024 and 270 GW in 2025, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [14]. 3. New Technologies Supported by Bidding, Expected Rapid Promotion - New technologies are being supported in bidding processes, with significant projects like the Huaneng Group's procurement of 15 GW of PV components, which includes N-type, HJT, and BC technologies [19][20]. - The report anticipates that 2025 will be a critical year for the development of new technologies, particularly if production challenges can be overcome [23][24]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies at the bottom of the material price cycle, such as Tongwei Co., Longi Green Energy, and JinkoSolar, among others. It also highlights growth opportunities in inverter and energy storage sectors [28].