2025年海通宏观展望：自胜者强

Macroeconomic Outlook - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, with short-term demand needing a boost[3] - Policy focus remains on high-quality development, with no large-scale stimulus expected, but gradual monetary and fiscal adjustments[2] - Fiscal deficit is projected to increase to around 3.5% in 2025, with special bond issuance likely to exceed 1 trillion yuan[35] Policy and Reform - Monetary policy will continue to adjust gradually, with potential for further deposit and interbank rate cuts[23] - Fiscal policy will focus on debt resolution, risk prevention, and stabilizing the economy, with a moderate increase in fiscal deficit[2] - Supply-side reforms are expected, particularly in industries with low capacity utilization and persistent losses[2] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate sales and investment are expected to gradually bottom out and recover with policy support[3] - Consumer spending growth remains sluggish, with retail sales growing 3.3% year-to-date in 2024, down from 3.7% in Q2[43] - Improving household income and expectations are crucial for boosting consumption[47] External Trade and Risks - Exports are expected to remain supportive in 2025, but trade surplus may narrow, reducing net exports' contribution to GDP[3] - Risks include policy uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and potential miscalculations in assumptions[3] Global Market and Asset Allocation - U.S. Treasury yields may face upward pressure if Trump's policies are implemented, increasing market volatility[3] - The dollar index is expected to remain strong, while the euro and yen may weaken[3] - Gold and gold-like assets are recommended for long-term investment due to global economic divergence and currency system changes[102] U.S. Policy Impact - Trump's potential policies, including tax cuts and tariffs, could increase U.S. fiscal deficits and inflation, impacting global markets[74] - U.S. corporate tax rates may be reduced from 21% to 15% for domestic production under Trump's proposals[74] - Tariff increases could lead to stagflationary pressures in the U.S., with potential GDP growth reduction and job losses[79]