BABA(09988) 浦银国际证券·2024-11-19 01:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Alibaba Group [5][17]. Core Insights - Alibaba's FY2Q25 revenue reached RMB 236.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, slightly below market expectations by 1%. Adjusted net profit was RMB 36.5 billion, down 9% year-on-year, but better than market expectations by 3% [3][5]. - The Taobao and Tmall segment showed stable growth with a revenue increase of 1% to RMB 99 billion, driven by a double-digit growth in order volume. The average order value decreased, but the number of buyers reached a historical high during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [4]. - The international e-commerce segment saw a significant revenue increase of 29% to RMB 31.7 billion, primarily driven by the AliExpress Choice business [4]. - Cloud business revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to RMB 29.6 billion, with public cloud products experiencing double-digit growth and AI-related products achieving triple-digit growth. The adjusted EBITA margin improved to 9% [5]. Financial Summary - FY25E revenue forecast is adjusted to RMB 990.5 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 140.7 billion. For FY26E, revenue is projected at RMB 1,064.4 billion and net profit at RMB 145.4 billion [5][7]. - The adjusted target price is set at HKD 91 and USD 94, corresponding to FY25E/FY26E P/E ratios of 11.6x and 11.2x respectively [5][17].