2024年前三季度海外航空市场景气度跟踪：海外航空业稳步复苏，航司经营出现分化

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the global airline industry, highlighting steady recovery and growth in capacity and demand [2][6]. Core Insights - The global airline market is experiencing a steady recovery, with passenger turnover (RPK) increasing by 11.3% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by a 14.7% increase in international RPK and a 6.3% increase in domestic RPK [2][6]. - The overall capacity (ASK) for the industry has grown by 9.7% compared to 2023, with international ASK up by 14.5% and domestic ASK up by 2.7% [2][6]. - The market's load factor has improved to 83.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from 2023, indicating stronger demand than capacity growth [2][6]. - The Asia-Pacific region leads the global recovery with an 18.6% increase in RPK, benefiting from improved international routes and a strong domestic travel season [2][10]. Summary by Sections Global Airline Market Overview - The global airline market is on a recovery path, with RPK and ASK showing significant year-on-year growth [2][6]. - As of September 2024, global passenger flight volumes have recovered to 94.1% of pre-pandemic levels, with international flights at 97.5% and domestic flights at 92.3% [23][28]. U.S. Airline Market Tracking - Major U.S. airlines have surpassed pre-pandemic operational metrics, with Delta Airlines reporting a year-on-year net profit increase, while United Airlines and Southwest Airlines saw declines [2][56]. - The U.S. airline industry is projected to reach record passenger volumes in 2024 and 2025, assuming continued employment growth and inflation moderation [62][66]. European Airline Market Tracking - The European airline market has seen a 7% year-on-year increase in passenger volume from January to August 2024, although ticket prices have experienced significant fluctuations [2][56]. Asian Major Airline Market Tracking - Southeast Asia and major airports in Japan and South Korea are gradually recovering, with increased passenger traffic compared to pre-pandemic levels [2][56]. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report suggests that the airline industry is poised for growth, with ongoing recovery trends and increasing demand for air travel, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [2][56].