交通运输行业周报：美联航增开中美直航，10月民航客流再恢复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [2][8]. Core Insights - The transportation industry experienced a cumulative decline of 3.34% from November 11 to November 15, 2024, ranking 11th among 31 SW primary industries, while the CSI 300 index declined by 3.29% [2][17]. - The aviation sector shows signs of recovery, with domestic flight volumes recovering to 104.50% of 2019 levels, while international flights reached 75.80% of 2019 levels [2][8]. - The report highlights the potential for the aviation sector to turn profitable in 2024 due to recovering demand and favorable policies for international routes [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The transportation sector's performance from November 11 to November 15, 2024, saw a decline of 3.34%, with various sub-sectors showing mixed results: public transport (+2.16%), logistics (+1.57%), rail (-0.49%), highways (-0.53%), ports (-0.99%), cross-border logistics (-2.35%), shipping (-3.14%), express delivery (-4.48%), road freight (-6.79%), and airport operations (-7.49%) [2][3][17]. 2. Fundamental Tracking Updates (a) Aviation and Airports - In the week of November 11-17, 2024, a total of 99,000 passenger flights were executed, with an average of 14,185 flights per day. Domestic flights accounted for 85,417, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.22% [2][8]. - The recovery rates for flights to major overseas destinations as of November 11, 2024, were: USA 29%, Germany 82%, France 65%, UK 92%, Italy 125%, Netherlands 76%, Japan 70%, South Korea 79%, Indonesia 76%, Malaysia 118%, Singapore 98%, Thailand 71% [2][8]. (b) Shipping and Ports - The SCFI index stood at 2,252 points as of November 15, 2024, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.42% but a year-on-year increase of 125.21% [2][8]. - The BDTI index reported 890 points, down 2.52% week-on-week and down 33.43% year-on-year [2][8]. (c) Road and Rail - In September 2024, rail passenger volume reached 342 million, up 5.13% year-on-year, while freight volume was 427 million tons, up 3.37% year-on-year [2][8]. - Road passenger volume for September 2024 was 976 million, up 3.27% year-on-year, with freight volume at 3.699 million tons, up 2.05% year-on-year [2][8]. (d) Express Delivery - In October 2024, the express delivery industry generated revenue of 125.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, with a business volume of 16.31 billion pieces, up 24.0% year-on-year [2][8]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the aviation sector is positioned for recovery in 2024, with potential profitability driven by increased demand and favorable international policies. Recommended stocks include China National Aviation (601111.SH), Southern Airlines (600029.SH), and others [2][8][9]. - For the shipping sector, the report indicates potential upward movement in freight rates due to geopolitical tensions, recommending stocks like COSCO Shipping Energy (600026.SH) and others [9]. - In the cross-border logistics sector, the report highlights the growth of cross-border e-commerce as a key driver, recommending Huamao Logistics (603128.SH) [9].