2025年A股展望：鲲鹏击浪从兹始

Policy Changes - Since September 24, 2024, a series of policy announcements have been made to address key market concerns, focusing on repairing household balance sheets and stimulating demand across various sectors[3] - The central bank has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and reduced the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.2 percentage points[4] - A total of 10 trillion yuan has been allocated to increase local government debt limits to address hidden debts[4] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has significantly improved since September 24, with the weekly turnover rate rising from a low of 214% to 656%[9] - Net inflows from margin trading have exceeded 400 billion yuan, surpassing the peak levels seen during the 2021 bull market[9] Long-term Outlook - The current risk premium for A-shares stands at 3.4%, placing it in the 22nd percentile since 2005, indicating potential for future recovery[13] - A-share net profit growth is projected to reach 5-10% year-on-year by 2025, with GDP growth expected around 5%[35] Sector Performance - The technology sector is expected to outperform, with projected net profit growth rates of 30% and 35% for electronics in 2024 and 2025, respectively[39] - High dividend-paying assets are anticipated to provide absolute returns, with the overall dividend payout ratio in A-shares reaching 32.4% by the end of 2023[60]