钢铁行业行业周报：政策组合发力，钢铁行业预期向好

Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains a "Hold" rating [5] Core Views - The steel sector is expected to benefit from a combination of special government bonds and replacement policies, which will support long-term growth. The recent approval of increased local government debt limits aims to facilitate major strategic projects and equipment upgrades, positively impacting steel demand [3][40] - The implementation of various incremental policies is anticipated to improve the black metal outlook, stabilizing the steel industry's fundamentals. An increase in terminal demand is expected due to favorable macroeconomic policies, which will enhance industry concentration and profitability [3][40] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector index fell by 6.29% over the week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.52%, Shenzhen Component Index down 3.70%, and the ChiNext Index down 3.36% [2][31] - All three sub-sectors (special steel, pipe materials, and plate materials) experienced declines, with drops of 3.66%, 5.93%, and 8.25% respectively [33][38] Price Analysis - Domestic steel prices showed slight declines, with rebar averaging 3504.2 CNY/ton (down 2.35%), wire rod at 3755.4 CNY/ton (down 1.49%), hot-rolled plate at 3620.2 CNY/ton (down 1.03%), and large and medium-sized materials at 3666.6 CNY/ton (down 0.74%) [2][54] - Raw material prices also weakened, with iron ore prices averaging 99.67 USD/ton (down 4.66%) and domestic iron ore at 703.6 CNY/ton (down 1.32%) [2][65] Supply and Inventory Trends - Steel production decreased, with crude steel output at 20.96 million tons, down 2.06 million tons from the previous period. The average operating rate of blast furnaces was 82.06%, a slight decrease of 0.21 percentage points [78][80] - Steel inventory saw a slight increase, with rebar social inventory at 2.962 million tons (up 2.67% week-on-week) and hot-rolled social inventory at 2.427 million tons (down 4.30% week-on-week) [81][86] Profitability Analysis - Profitability for various steel products remains under pressure, with rebar margins at approximately -57 CNY/ton, wire rod at 173 CNY/ton, and medium-thick plate at -24 CNY/ton [94][96]