社服与消费视角点评10月国内宏观数据：“双十一”和以旧换新等政策共促十月社零消费良好增长

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the retail sales data for October showed good growth, with total retail sales reaching 45,396 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1] - The report attributes the positive performance to factors such as the pre-heating of "Double Eleven" sales and policies promoting the replacement of old goods with new ones, which have stimulated consumption [1] - The service industry PMI for October was reported at 50.1%, indicating a slight improvement in the service sector [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Macro Data - In October, total retail sales increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points. Restaurant revenue grew by 3.2% year-on-year [1] - The total retail sales from January to October reached nearly 40 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [1] Support for Rating - The report notes that the retail sales of physical goods online increased by 8.3% year-on-year from January to October, with an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous months [1] - The report emphasizes that the policies promoting the replacement of old goods with new ones have positively impacted consumption, particularly in categories such as automobiles and home appliances [1] Employment and Consumer Confidence - The national urban survey unemployment rate in October was 5.0%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The consumer confidence index for September was reported at 85.7, indicating that while consumer confidence is recovering, it remains at a low level with significant room for improvement [1]