宏观研究报告：详细测算财政支出的七大方向

Group 1: Economic Impact of Policies - The new round of fiscal debt replacement is expected to reduce local government debt repayment by CNY 1.74 trillion annually, with an estimated CNY 1 trillion potentially converted into actual fiscal spending, directly boosting GDP growth by approximately 0.7 percentage points[15] - The acquisition of idle land is projected to require around CNY 1.4 trillion, significantly improving cash flow for local governments and real estate companies, while also controlling land supply and stabilizing housing prices[29] - The stockpiling of unsold residential properties is estimated to require CNY 1.1 trillion, which could lead to a sales growth rate of over 10% in the real estate market if fully implemented next year[32] Group 2: Urbanization and Investment - The new urbanization plan aims to increase the urbanization rate to nearly 70% within five years, necessitating an annual investment of CNY 1.35 trillion, which could drive fixed asset investment growth by 2.6%[57] - Urbanization is expected to generate an additional CNY 750 billion in consumer demand annually, contributing to a 1.54% increase in total retail sales[61] - The urban infrastructure renovation is projected to require CNY 4 trillion over five years, with an annual investment of CNY 800 billion, further boosting fixed asset investment and GDP growth[61] Group 3: Consumer Spending and Subsidies - The "old-for-new" appliance replacement policy is anticipated to generate CNY 1 trillion in consumer spending, with a multiplier effect of approximately 5.25[63] - The government’s student subsidy policy is expected to add CNY 109 billion in incremental spending, likely translating into increased consumption due to the high marginal propensity to consume among students[62] - The anticipated birth subsidies could amount to CNY 230 billion, potentially increasing consumer spending by CNY 150 billion due to a 65% consumption conversion rate[9]