产业在线10月空调数据简评：内销大幅提速，出口继续新高

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the home appliance industry [7][15]. Core Insights - In October, domestic air conditioner sales surged significantly, exceeding expectations, as the new cooling season enters a peak period for deliveries. The end of inventory destocking has led to improved sales momentum, with a potential for replenishment elasticity. The industry average price trend has been upward since September, supported by favorable policies, although a significant change in market structure is unlikely in the short term. The leading brands have shown strong operational momentum, with excellent Q3 financial reports and continued breakthroughs in overseas original brand manufacturing (OBM) [2][15]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Data - In October 2024, the production of home air conditioners reached 14.06 million units, a year-on-year increase of 48.03%, while sales totaled 12.87 million units, up 37.91%. Domestic sales accounted for 6.29 million units, increasing by 24.13%, and exports reached 6.58 million units, up 54.29%. The ending inventory was 16.04 million units, down 4.98% year-on-year [11][17]. Domestic Market Performance - The "trade-in for new" policy has significantly boosted domestic air conditioner sales in October, with a month-on-month increase that is the second highest for the same period. The sales growth rate for domestic air conditioners hit a low in September 2023, but improved significantly in October. The leading brands experienced double-digit growth, with overall retail volume increasing by 29% year-on-year [12][15]. Brand Performance - In October, Midea's domestic sales increased by 40%, while Gree's sales decreased by 10%. Haier and Hisense saw increases of 50% and 51.56%, respectively. Notably, Changhong's sales surged by 189.29%, with domestic sales up 292.31%. The online retail prices for major brands have shown a moderate decline, indicating a stable pricing strategy among leading brands [13][14][15]. Export Market Trends - The export volume of home air conditioners in October rose by 54.3%, marking a new high. The growth rate compared to the same period in 2021 and 2019 was approximately 20%. The leading brands, including Midea and Gree, reported significant increases in export volumes, with Midea's exports up 46% and Gree's up 23% [14][15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued strong performance in the air conditioning sector, with domestic sales expected to grow by 5% year-on-year in November and December 2023. The favorable policy environment and the end of inventory destocking are expected to sustain the positive sales momentum into the fourth quarter [12][15].