XQL Slewing Bearing(300850) 东吴证券·2024-11-19 10:33Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on anticipated growth in wind power installation demand and recovery in profitability [5][23]. Core Views - The company has reached a performance turning point in Q3, with a significant improvement in profitability compared to previous quarters. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.965 billion yuan, down 6.06% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in market prices for wind power equipment [2][12]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 18.71%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.73%, while the net profit margin was 7.89%, reflecting a recovery in profitability driven by improved cost structures and increased demand from downstream customers [3][14]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory and accounts receivable, with inventory down 14.07% year-on-year to 966 million yuan and accounts receivable down 9.59% to 1.226 billion yuan. The order backlog remains strong at approximately 1.68 billion yuan [4][18]. - The company has achieved breakthroughs in domestic production of offshore main bearings, with ongoing investment projects expected to enhance growth potential. The company anticipates significant production capacity increases in the coming years [20][23]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts a net profit of 0.02 billion yuan, followed by 4.30 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.73 billion yuan in 2026. The current market capitalization corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of 4932, 20, and 18 times for these years respectively [5][23]. Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a Q3 revenue of 908 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.63%. The net profit for Q3 was 65 million yuan, marking a return to profitability after previous losses [2][12]. Cost Structure and Efficiency - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 16.74%, down 9.90 percentage points year-on-year. The improvement in Q3 was attributed to a slowdown in price declines due to larger wind turbine sizes and a decrease in raw material costs [3][14]. Orders and Inventory Management - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company had a strong order backlog of approximately 1.68 billion yuan, indicating robust future revenue potential despite a decrease in inventory and accounts receivable [4][18]. Technological Advancements - The company has made significant advancements in the production of large power bearings and is expected to achieve substantial production capacity in the coming years, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [20][23].