房地产行业：产能牛耳已执，价值重升可期

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate sector, indicating a potential recovery in value due to favorable policies and market conditions [2][14][37]. Core Insights - The report highlights the cyclical nature of real estate policies in China, suggesting that the current phase is more favorable compared to previous cycles, particularly the one that began in 2014 [14][17]. - It emphasizes that the real estate market is expected to enter a bottoming phase over the next 25 years, with inventory pressures peaking and a gradual recovery anticipated [56][64]. - The shift from a focus on credit preservation to value preservation among real estate companies is noted, indicating a strategic change in business operations [71][78]. Summary by Sections 1. Dollar Tide Mechanism - The report discusses the favorable impact of the current dollar tide on Chinese assets, driven by global supply chain demands and a shift towards a renminbi settlement system [7][8][9]. 2. Domestic Real Estate Policy Cycle - The report outlines the initiation of a new policy cycle aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with significant measures taken since July 2023 to support recovery [14][27]. - It compares the current market conditions to those of 2014, noting that while there are challenges, there are also significant opportunities for recovery due to effective capacity reduction and land supply contraction [31][36]. 3. Market Bottom Prediction - The report predicts that the real estate market will reach a bottom phase, with inventory levels and sales showing signs of stabilization [56][64]. - It notes that the sales area in key cities has shown a bottoming trend, with expectations for a narrowing of sales decline in 2025 [59][60]. 4. Corporate Strategy Shift - The report indicates a strategic shift among real estate companies from focusing on growth to emphasizing value preservation, with an emphasis on asset activation and mergers and acquisitions [71][78]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in undervalued blue-chip stocks within the real estate sector, particularly those with merger and acquisition potential [86].