房地产行业专题研究：政策效果显现，10月销售边际改善

Investment Rating - The investment recommendation for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the effects of policies are becoming evident, with marginal improvements in sales observed in October 2024. The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to October 2024 is 77,930 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%, while the sales amount is 76,855 billion yuan, down 20.9% year-on-year. However, the decline in sales area and amount has narrowed compared to previous months [2][11][25][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Side: Development Investment Stabilizing, Completion Area Decline Narrowing - Cumulative real estate development investment from January to October 2024 is 86,309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, with a monthly investment of 7,629 billion yuan in October, down 12.3% year-on-year [18]. - The cumulative new construction area is 61,227 million square meters, down 22.6% year-on-year, with a monthly new construction area of 5,176 million square meters in October, down 26.7% year-on-year [18]. - The cumulative completion area is 41,995 million square meters, down 23.9% year-on-year, with a monthly completion area of 5,179 million square meters in October, down 20.1% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to September [23]. 2. Sales Side: Policy Effects Evident, Sales Rebound - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to October 2024 is 77,930 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, but the decline has narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [25]. - The cumulative sales amount is 76,855 billion yuan, down 20.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [27]. - In October, the sales area is 7,646 million square meters, down 1.6% year-on-year, and the sales amount is 7,975 billion yuan, down 1.0% year-on-year, showing significant recovery from previous months [27]. 3. Funding Side: Continuous Improvement in Funds Received, Marginal Recovery in Sales Returns - Cumulative funds received by real estate development enterprises from January to October 2024 amount to 87,235 billion yuan, down 19.2% year-on-year, with a continuous narrowing of the decline for seven months [34]. - In October, the funds received amount to 8,337 billion yuan, down 10.8% year-on-year, with a significant narrowing of the decline compared to September [34]. - The sources of funds include deposits and prepayments, personal mortgage loans, domestic loans, and self-raised funds, with year-on-year changes of -27.7%, -32.8%, -6.4%, and -10.5%, respectively, indicating a recovery in sales returns [38]. 4. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Central State-Owned Enterprises with Improvement Product Capabilities - The report suggests focusing on central state-owned enterprises that are well-positioned in core first- and second-tier cities and specialize in improvement products, such as Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, and Binjiang Group [47]. - It also highlights the potential of real estate intermediary platforms benefiting from active second-hand housing markets, such as I Love My Home [47].