TRIP.COM(09961) 交银国际证券·2024-11-20 01:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Trip.com Group (9961 HK), with a target price raised to HKD 605.00, indicating a potential upside of 26.5% from the current price of HKD 478.20 [1][5][12]. Core Insights - The company's hotel business has performed better than expected, and the transportation segment is returning to normal growth, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 4% and 6% respectively. Trip.com is expected to continue contributing to revenue growth, with manageable investments and losses [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 15.9 billion for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing market expectations. The growth was driven by accommodation (+22%), transportation (+5%), vacation (+17%), and business travel (+11%) segments [2][6]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached RMB 6 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, exceeding expectations due to optimized cross-selling and effective cost control [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for 2024E have been updated to RMB 52.93 billion, reflecting an 18.8% growth rate, while 2025E revenue is forecasted at RMB 60.6 billion, a 14.5% growth rate [4][17]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2024E is expected to be RMB 16.08 billion, with an operating profit margin of 30.4% [4][17]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 17.84 billion, with a net profit margin of 33.7% [4][17]. Performance Metrics - The company has shown a strong recovery in its hotel and transportation segments, with the average daily rate (ADR) pressure easing and outbound travel bookings recovering to 120% of 2019 levels [2][6]. - Marketing expenses have increased by 23% year-on-year, but remain stable as a percentage of revenue at 21% [2][6]. - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to be 81.5% for 2024E, slightly down from 81.7% in the previous forecast [4][17].