Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 77.36, indicating a potential upside of 48.9% from the current price of HKD 51.95 [1][4][3]. Core Insights - The automotive gross margin exceeded expectations in Q3, with revenue reaching RMB 10.1 billion, a 24.5% increase quarter-on-quarter, and vehicle sales of 46,000 units, up 54.0% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company continues to benefit from ongoing revenue from partnerships, particularly with Volkswagen, and has maintained effective cost control, with R&D and sales expenses increasing slightly but decreasing as a percentage of revenue [1][2]. - The forecast for Q4 indicates total revenue between RMB 15.3 billion and RMB 16.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 17.2% to 24.1%, with vehicle deliveries expected to be between 87,000 and 91,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 44.6% to 51.3% [2][3]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 30.7 billion in 2023, RMB 39.6 billion in 2024, RMB 61.2 billion in 2025, and RMB 67.7 billion in 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 14.2%, 29.2%, 54.5%, and 10.5% [7]. - The company is expected to incur net losses of RMB 10.4 billion in 2023, RMB 4.8 billion in 2024, RMB 2.4 billion in 2025, and RMB 1.3 billion in 2026 [7]. - The gross margin is projected to improve, with a forecasted gross margin of 12.8% in 2024, 13.8% in 2025, and 14.7% in 2026 [14]. Market Position - The company has a significant backlog of nearly 100,000 orders for its popular models, which is expected to support sales in Q4 and Q1 of the following year [2][3]. - The report highlights that the pricing of vehicles has decreased, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-priced models, yet the gross margin has shown signs of recovery [2][3]. Analyst Commentary - Analysts believe that the product strength and value proposition of the M03 and P7+ models will positively influence the sales of new models set to be released next year [3]. - The market has not yet fully priced in the potential sales boost from the upcoming extended-range models, suggesting there is still room for upward adjustments in sales forecasts for next year [3].
小鹏汽车-W：汽车毛利超预期，P7+上量有望令汽车毛利进一步改善