Market Overview - The market is currently in a bull market adjustment phase, with short-term fluctuations expected but a positive outlook for the mid-term quarterly level[9] - Historical data indicates that during bull market adjustments, the GLDI sentiment index typically falls to around 30%, and the weekly average turnover rate drops to approximately 2.6%[9] - The average drawdown during previous bull markets is about 10%, with a current A-share securitization rate of 76%, indicating sufficient room for future growth[9][30] Sector Analysis - The report identifies "six lows and one high" sectors likely to experience a bottom reversal, focusing on industries with low valuations and low turnover rates[10] - Targeted sectors include cyclical industries such as pesticides and potassium fertilizers, manufacturing sectors like grid automation equipment and photovoltaic components, and consumer sectors including meat and dairy products[10] - The report highlights that previously lagging sectors have shown resilience during the current adjustment, suggesting potential for recovery[10] Investment Strategy - Future market performance is expected to rely on large-cap stocks to boost overall sentiment and valuation expectations, followed by a rebound in small-cap stocks[11] - December is identified as a critical window period for potential policy changes or fundamental data revisions that could influence market direction[11] Risk Factors - Key risks include significant geopolitical changes, unexpected shifts in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, and domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations[11]
点评报告:调整期间,哪些方向更具性价比?
Guolian Securities·2024-11-20 10:15