UBS-2025-26年中国经济展望：政策支持将是关键

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but it highlights significant macroeconomic challenges and policy responses that could impact investment decisions [2][3][4] Core Views - China's GDP growth is expected to slow to 4% in 2025 and further to 3% in 2026 due to external shocks and domestic economic pressures [2][10] - US tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially up to 60%, could significantly impact China's export sector and GDP growth, with a drag of over 150 basis points [3][11] - Policy support, including fiscal expansion and monetary easing, is expected to partially offset the negative impact of external shocks [4][12] Macroeconomic Outlook - China's GDP growth is projected to slow to 4% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, driven by weaker domestic demand and external trade pressures [2][10] - CPI inflation is expected to slow to 0.1% in 2025 and turn slightly negative (-0.2%) in 2026, reflecting weak domestic demand and price pressures [2][19] - The government is expected to increase fiscal support, with a budget deficit of 3.5-4% of GDP in 2025 and further expansion in 2026 [4][12] Trade and Tariff Impact - The US is expected to impose tariffs on about 75% of Chinese imports, with a 60% tariff rate, starting in 2025 and fully implemented by 2026 [3][11] - The tariff impact is expected to be most severe in 2026, with a potential drag on GDP growth of over 150 basis points [3][11] - Export-related industries may face significant challenges, with some firms considering relocating supply chains or shutting down factories [25][29] Policy Support - Fiscal policy is expected to expand significantly, with a 2 percentage point increase in the augmented fiscal deficit ratio in 2025 [4][12] - Monetary policy is expected to include rate cuts of 30-40 basis points in 2025 and further cuts of 20-30 basis points in 2026 [4][12] - The government may also increase support for consumer spending and structural reforms to mitigate the impact of tariffs [4][12] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is expected to remain weak, with sales and new starts projected to decline by 5-10% and 10-15% respectively in 2025 [5][13] - Policy support, including lower mortgage rates and increased fiscal spending, may help stabilize the market by 2026 [5][13] - High inventory levels and weak demand are expected to continue to pressure the sector, particularly in lower-tier cities [5][13] Consumption and Investment - Consumer spending is expected to slow, with real consumption growth projected to decline to 3.8% in 2025 and 2026 [31][32] - Fixed asset investment is expected to improve slightly, with infrastructure investment growth slowing to 7-8% in 2025 [34][35] - Manufacturing investment is expected to slow to around 6% in 2025 due to weak demand and profit pressures [34][35] Currency and Structural Reforms - The RMB is expected to depreciate further, with the USD/CNY rate projected at 7.6 by the end of 2025 and 7.7 by the end of 2026 [55][59] - Structural reforms, including support for private businesses and improvements in social security, are expected to accelerate [56][60] Risks and Uncertainties - The timing and magnitude of US tariffs, as well as the scale of China's policy response, remain key uncertainties [6][17] - Further tightening of US technology restrictions or more aggressive decoupling could pose additional risks to China's economic growth [6][17] - The timing of the real estate market stabilization is difficult to predict and could impact the overall economic outlook [6][17]