NIO(09866) 交银国际证券·2024-11-21 06:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. (蔚来汽车) with a target price of HKD 59.88, indicating a potential upside of 64.5% from the current price of HKD 36.40 [4][12]. Core Insights - NIO's fourth-quarter sales guidance is below expectations, with anticipated deliveries of 72,000 to 75,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.9% to 49.9%. Revenue guidance for the fourth quarter is set between RMB 196.8 billion and RMB 203.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.0% to 19.2% [2][3]. - The decline in average selling price (ASP) is more significant than expected, with the ASP dropping to RMB 270,000, below market expectations and previous guidance of RMB 280,000 for the third quarter. This is attributed to increased promotional efforts by NIO [1][2]. - The report highlights that revenue for the third quarter is expected to be RMB 18.7 billion, slightly below expectations, with a gross margin of 10.7%, which is slightly above market expectations. The automotive gross margin improved to 13.1% due to lower battery costs and increased sales volume [1][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, NIO's revenue is projected to reach RMB 62.847 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.0%. However, net losses are expected to be RMB 16.867 billion, with a core loss per share of RMB 9.92 [7][15]. - The report indicates that NIO's sales and R&D expenses increased by 9.4% and 3.1% respectively, with sales expenses surpassing RMB 40 billion for the first time due to channel expansion and promotional activities [1][3]. - The report anticipates that the growth in sales volume next year will primarily come from the launch of new models under the NIO brand and the introduction of the lower-priced sub-brand, Firefly [2][3].