房地产行业2024年10月月报：10月新房二手房成交同环比均正增长；各类宏观与财政政策加速落地

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - In October, both new and second-hand housing transactions showed positive growth on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, driven by the implementation of various macroeconomic and fiscal policies [1] - The new housing transaction volume in October saw its first year-on-year increase after 16 consecutive months of decline, with a month-on-month increase of 44.4% and a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [1] - The report anticipates continued slight recovery in transactions for November and December due to low base effects, ongoing policy impacts, and year-end sales pushes by real estate companies [1] Summary by Sections 1. New and Second-hand Housing Transactions - New housing transactions in October reached 1,355.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 44.4% and a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, marking a significant recovery after 16 months of decline [1][3] - Second-hand housing transactions also showed resilience, with a month-on-month increase of 17.3% and a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, continuing five months of positive growth [1][3] - Inventory levels and the de-stocking cycle both decreased month-on-month, indicating improved market conditions [1][3] 2. Land Market - The land transaction volume in October remained low, with a month-on-month increase of 8.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.3% [1][3] - The average land price was 1,408 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight month-on-month decline of 0.4% and a year-on-year decline of 8.0% [1][3] 3. Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies reported a month-on-month sales increase of 5.4% in October, marking the first positive year-on-year growth since June 2023 [1][3] - Land acquisition intensity decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 52.4% in land investment by these companies [1][3] - Financing activities in October showed a slight year-on-year increase, but the absolute value remained low, indicating cautious market sentiment [1][3] 4. Policy Support - Various government departments have reiterated their support for the real estate sector, with policies accelerating implementation to stabilize the market [1][3] - Recent tax policy adjustments, including reductions in transaction taxes, are expected to further stimulate market activity [1][3] 5. Market Performance - The real estate sector saw a significant increase in stock performance in October, with an absolute return of 3.1%, outperforming the broader market [1][3] - The report suggests that the recovery in the real estate market is likely to continue, driven by supportive policies and improving fundamentals [1][3]