银行业新周期、新格局系列报告之再融资专题：打开国有大行再融资窗口有其重要性、必要性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry, particularly focusing on the necessity and importance of capital replenishment for state-owned banks [3][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the historical context of capital replenishment for state-owned banks, highlighting that previous rounds were driven by specific economic conditions and regulatory requirements. The current round is seen as essential for maintaining the stability of the financial system and ensuring sustainable support for the real economy [3][20]. - It is noted that the internal capital generation capacity of state-owned banks has weakened, necessitating external capital replenishment to support ongoing operations and growth [3][7]. - The report quantifies the potential impact of capital replenishment on profitability and dividend yields, estimating that the total capital replenishment could reach approximately 1.26 trillion yuan by 2027, with an average return on equity (ROE) dilution of about 0.9 percentage points [3][6][11]. Summary by Sections Historical Context of Capital Replenishment - The report reviews three historical rounds of capital replenishment for state-owned banks, indicating that while risk management was a factor, the primary goal was to enhance capital adequacy [21][32]. - The first round in the late 1990s was in response to high non-performing loan (NPL) ratios due to the Asian financial crisis, with the government issuing 270 billion yuan in special bonds to inject capital [21]. - The second round from 2003 to 2008 focused on preparing banks for competition with foreign banks post-WTO accession, involving significant capital injections from the Central Huijin Investment [21][32]. - The third round in 2010 was driven by rapid credit growth following the "Four Trillion Plan," necessitating urgent capital replenishment through share placements [32]. Current Capital Replenishment Needs - The report highlights that the current economic environment and regulatory requirements necessitate capital replenishment to ensure that banks can continue to support the real economy effectively [3][36]. - It discusses the importance of maintaining a robust balance sheet for state-owned banks, especially during a period of economic transition towards high-quality development [3][36]. Impact of Capital Replenishment - The report estimates that if state-owned banks rely solely on internal capital generation, the average ROE would need to remain around 12%, but it is projected to drop to 10% in 2024 [3][6]. - The potential dilution of ROE due to capital replenishment is quantified, with an expected average ROE of about 10% post-replenishment [3][11]. - The report also assesses the impact on dividend yields, projecting a reduction in average dividend yield from approximately 5% to around 4.5% following capital replenishment [3][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should continue to hold shares in state-owned banks (H-shares) and focus on two main lines: quality mid-sized banks expected to see performance growth due to policy catalysts and banks that are undervalued due to expected debt resolution [6][7].