NIO-蔚来-SW：汽车毛利率稳步提升，新品牌贡献销量增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, with a target price adjusted to $5.5 for the US stock and HKD 42.6 for the Hong Kong stock, corresponding to potential upside of 18% and 17% respectively [3][5][7]. Core Insights - NIO is expected to enter a significant year for new product sales, with the introduction of the second brand, ONVO, and the third brand, Firefly, which will enhance the product matrix and broaden price coverage [3][4]. - The company is focusing on maintaining the high-end brand positioning of its main brand, NIO, and has reduced promotional efforts to improve profit margins. The gross margin for NIO is projected to continue increasing [3][4]. - Operating leverage is anticipated to manifest gradually, with operating and net losses expected to narrow over the coming quarters [3][4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In Q3 2023, NIO's gross margin reached 13.1%, a year-on-year increase of 2 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 percentage points, driven by cost optimization and improved manufacturing efficiency [4][10]. - The company aims to double its vehicle sales in 2024, with production capacity for the ONVO L60 expected to ramp up to 20,000 units per month by March 2024 [4][10]. - The gross margin target for the NIO brand is set to reach 15% in Q4 2023 and gradually increase to 20% in 2024, while the ONVO brand aims for a gross margin of 10% [4][10]. - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 66.1 billion and RMB 102.0 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19% and 54% [6][12]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a sales multiple of 0.8x to NIO's 2025 automotive and other sales, leading to a target price of$ 5.5 for the US stock and HKD 42.6 for the Hong Kong stock [5][15]. - The current price-to-sales ratio for NIO is 0.7x, indicating an attractive valuation [3][5].