中国民航行业2024年中期信用观察

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit quality outlook for the Chinese civil aviation industry, supported by steady passenger and cargo demand, strong cash flow from core operations, and liquidity support from financial institutions [1][2]. Core Insights - The Chinese civil aviation industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in both passenger and cargo transport markets, with passenger volumes surpassing 2019 levels and cargo transport showing significant growth [1][4]. - Domestic aviation markets are operating robustly, while international market recovery is accelerating, albeit at a slower pace due to geopolitical and operational challenges [1][4]. - Despite the positive trends, airlines face pressures from fluctuating fuel prices, exchange rates, and uncertainties in international market recovery, which may impact profitability [1][2]. Summary by Sections Civil Aviation Transport Industry - Passenger demand in China has continued to recover in 2024, with transport volumes reaching new peaks during the summer months, although growth rates are gradually normalizing [4]. - Domestic passenger volumes have exceeded 2019 levels, while international routes are recovering but have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels due to various external factors [4]. - Cargo transport has also seen growth, with domestic cargo volumes increasing by 19.4% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, reaching 105.4% of 2019 levels [5][6]. Financial Performance - The industry is expected to maintain revenue growth, although profit margins are under pressure due to rising operational costs and capital expenditures [2][4]. - The average daily utilization of aircraft has improved to 9.0 hours in 2024, reflecting a recovery in operational efficiency [16][18]. - The report highlights that the financial health of airport enterprises remains stable, supported by strong cash flows and external financial support [2][4]. Fleet and Capacity - The total number of operational aircraft in the Chinese civil aviation sector reached 4,270 by the end of 2023, with a gradual increase in fleet size observed [12][18]. - The report notes a significant increase in the introduction of cargo aircraft, with airlines focusing on international cargo markets as a growth area [12][18]. - The upcoming winter-spring season is expected to see an increase in international flight schedules, while domestic routes remain stable [12][18].