区域研究报告：上海市及下辖各区经济财政实力与债务研究（2024）

Economic Strength of Shanghai - Shanghai, as China's economic center and the core city of the Yangtze River Delta, has a significant agglomeration and radiation function, leading regional development with a modern industrial system dominated by modern services, led by strategic emerging industries, and supported by advanced manufacturing [1] - In 2023, Shanghai's GDP reached 4.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, driven primarily by the tertiary industry, which accounted for 75.2% of the total GDP [17] - The city's investment, consumption, and import-export growth rates in 2023 were 13.8%, 12.6%, and 0.7% respectively, though consumption growth faced pressure in 2024 with a decline of 3.4% in the first nine months [1][17] District-Level Economic Performance - Shanghai's districts are clearly differentiated in terms of functional planning and industrial positioning, with central districts focusing on high-end services like finance and modern commerce, while suburban areas focus on strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing [2] - In 2023, Pudong New Area had the highest GDP at 1671.515 billion yuan, while Chongming District had the lowest at 42.186 billion yuan, with most districts falling within the 1000-3000 billion yuan range [2] - Central districts generally outperformed suburban areas in GDP growth, with Changning District (12.8%), Xuhui District (8.2%), and Jing'an District (7.0%) showing particularly strong growth, while suburban areas like Qingpu District (5.7%) and Jinshan District (6.5%) also performed well [2][3] Fiscal Strength and Revenue Structure - Shanghai's fiscal strength is robust, with general public budget revenue reaching 831.25 billion yuan in 2023, a 9.3% year-on-year increase, driven by recovery from the pandemic and large-scale tax refunds [4] - The city's fiscal structure is dominated by general public budget revenue, with low reliance on non-tax revenue, superior subsidies, and debt income, reflecting strong fiscal self-sufficiency [4][42] - In 2024, the growth of general public budget revenue slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, with declines in major tax categories due to reduced corporate sales and profits [4][42] Industrial Structure and Emerging Industries - Shanghai's industrial structure is characterized by a modern service sector as the main body, with strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing as key drivers, particularly in sectors like integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence [1][29] - In 2023, the added value of strategic emerging industries reached 1.17 trillion yuan, accounting for 24.8% of the city's GDP, with industrial strategic emerging industries contributing 398.818 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase [24] - The city's industrial strategic emerging industries, including new energy, high-end equipment, and biomedicine, accounted for 43.9% of the total industrial output value in 2023, reflecting a steady increase in their contribution [28] Real Estate and Infrastructure Development - Shanghai's real estate market saw significant investment growth in 2023, with total real estate development investment reaching 588.579 billion yuan, a 18.2% year-on-year increase, driven by residential investment [36] - The city's infrastructure development remains strong, with major projects like the expansion of Pudong International Airport and the construction of the Shanghai East Railway Station progressing steadily, enhancing the city's transportation hub status [35] - In 2024, the city's government fund budget revenue increased by 14.7% in the first half of the year, driven by accelerated land supply and market activity [5][7]