区域研究报告：江苏省及下辖各市经济财政实力与债务研究（2024）

Economic Strength of Jiangsu Province - Jiangsu Province is one of the most economically developed regions in China, with a GDP of 12.82 trillion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [1][8] - The industrial economy remained stable, with advanced manufacturing showing relatively good growth, and the service sector maintaining a robust position [1][8] - In 2024, the GDP growth rate for the first three quarters was 5.7%, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][8] Regional Economic Differences - In 2023, the GDP ranking of cities in Jiangsu remained unchanged, with significant economic disparities between regions [2] - Southern Jiangsu cities like Suzhou, Nanjing, and Wuxi had GDPs exceeding 1 trillion yuan, while northern Jiangsu cities had smaller economies [2][32] - Economic growth rates across cities ranged from 4.6% to 10.2%, with most cities experiencing steady growth in 2024 [2][32] Fiscal Strength - Jiangsu's general public budget revenue in 2023 was 993.018 billion yuan, a 7.25% increase year-on-year, with tax revenue accounting for 80.33% [2][21] - Government fund revenue, mainly from land sales, declined by 10.13% in 2023 due to the downturn in the real estate market [2][21] - The fiscal self-sufficiency rate was 65.15%, ranking fifth nationally [2][21] Debt Situation - Jiangsu's government debt balance at the end of 2023 was 2.273 trillion yuan, a 9.85% increase year-on-year, ranking third nationally [6][71] - The debt-to-revenue ratio was 2.29 times, indicating relatively low debt pressure compared to other provinces [6][71] - Urban investment bonds and interest-bearing debt remained high, with a total of 7.99 trillion yuan in 2023, posing significant repayment pressure [6][88] Industrial Structure - Jiangsu's industrial structure shifted to a "three-two-one" pattern, with the tertiary sector accounting for 51.6% of GDP in 2023 [16] - Advanced manufacturing, particularly in equipment manufacturing, grew by 7.8%, contributing 53.4% to industrial added value [16][17] - Key industries such as automobiles, electrical machinery, and new energy products showed strong growth [16][17] Service Sector Performance - The service sector remained a pillar of the economy, with a 5.1% growth in 2023, accounting for 51.6% of GDP [18] - Transportation and tourism rebounded strongly, with passenger traffic increasing by 54.4% and tourism revenue by 45.7% [18] - Financial and postal services maintained stable growth, with financial institution deposits and loans increasing by 12.9% and 14.6%, respectively [18] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Jiangsu grew by 5.2% in 2023, with private investment accounting for 66.5% of the total [18] - Real estate investment declined by 4.2%, but the rate of decline narrowed compared to the previous year [18] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.5%, with online retail sales accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [19] Foreign Trade - Jiangsu's foreign trade declined in 2023, with total import and export volume decreasing by 3.2% [20] - Export volume fell by 2.5%, while import volume dropped by 4.3% [20] - In 2024, the decline in foreign trade continued, with a 9.0% drop in real estate development investment in the first three quarters [20] Urban Economic Indicators - Suzhou, Nanjing, and Wuxi led in GDP, with Suzhou's GDP reaching 2.47 trillion yuan in 2023 [39] - Southern Jiangsu cities had higher per capita GDP, with Wuxi leading at 206,300 yuan per capita [42] - Northern Jiangsu cities lagged in economic indicators, with per capita GDPs below 100,000 yuan [42] Fiscal Performance by City - Suzhou, Nanjing, and Wuxi had the highest general public budget revenues, exceeding 100 billion yuan each in 2023 [57] - Lianyungang, Suqian, and Nantong showed the highest growth rates in public budget revenue, while Nanjing had the lowest growth rate [59] - Fiscal self-sufficiency rates varied significantly, with southern Jiangsu cities generally having higher rates [61] Government Fund Revenue by City - Government fund revenues were concentrated in economically strong cities like Suzhou, Changzhou, and Nanjing [64] - Most cities saw declines in government fund revenue due to the real estate market downturn, with only Yancheng, Lianyungang, and Zhenjiang showing positive growth [65] - Government fund revenues remained a significant source of local fiscal strength, often exceeding general public budget revenues [69] Debt Distribution by City - Nanjing had the highest government debt balance at 307.003 billion yuan in 2023, followed by Zhenjiang at 245.908 billion yuan [82] - Suzhou had the lowest debt-to-revenue ratio at 83.28%, indicating strong fiscal coverage of debt [84] - Zhenjiang's debt-to-revenue ratio was the highest at 766.76%, reflecting significant debt pressure [84] Urban Investment Bonds - Jiangsu's urban investment bonds and interest-bearing debt were the highest in the country, with a total of 7.99 trillion yuan in 2023 [88] - Nanjing and Suzhou had the highest outstanding urban investment bonds, with Nanjing at 479.91 billion yuan and Suzhou at 314.665 billion yuan [92] - Debt pressure varied by city, with Yancheng, Taizhou, and Huai'an facing the highest debt burdens relative to fiscal revenue [101]