区域研究报告：山东省及下辖各市经济财政实力与债务研究(2024)

Economic and Fiscal Strength of Shandong Province - Shandong Province achieved a GDP of 9.2 trillion yuan in 2023, ranking third in China with a growth rate of 6.0%, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than the national average [1][13] - The province's investment, consumption, and import-export growth rates in 2023 were 5.2%, 8.7%, and 1.7% respectively, with consumption showing a significant recovery [1] - In the first three quarters of 2024, Shandong's GDP reached 7.2 trillion yuan, maintaining its third position nationally with a growth rate of 5.6%, again 0.8 percentage points higher than the national average [1][13] Economic Performance of Shandong's Cities - Qingdao led the province with a GDP of 1.58 trillion yuan in 2023, accounting for 17.1% of the province's total GDP, followed by Jinan with 1.28 trillion yuan [2] - Yantai became the third city in Shandong to surpass 1 trillion yuan in GDP, reaching 1.02 trillion yuan in 2023 [2] - Most cities in Shandong saw investment growth in single digits, while consumption growth rebounded significantly, with growth rates between 6% and 12% [2] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - Shandong's general public budget revenue in 2023 was 746.48 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase, ranking fifth nationally with a tax ratio of 70.1% [2][28] - Government fund budget revenue declined by 19.0% to 492.54 billion yuan in 2023 due to a downturn in the land market [3][28] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the general public budget revenue grew by 3.6% to 606.51 billion yuan, with a fiscal self-sufficiency rate of 67.1% [3][28] Debt Situation - Shandong's government debt balance reached 2.39 trillion yuan at the end of 2023, a 16.5% increase from the previous year, surpassing Jiangsu to become the second-largest in China [6][7] - The debt balance was 3.9 times the general public budget revenue, ranking 16th nationally in terms of debt coverage [7] - Qingdao and Jinan had the highest government debt balances at 362 billion yuan and 318.04 billion yuan respectively, with debt growth rates exceeding 20% in some cities [8][82] Urban Investment Bonds - Shandong's urban investment bond issuance in 2023 was 324.8 billion yuan, a 39.7% increase from 2022, ranking fourth nationally [87] - Qingdao led with 97.65 billion yuan in issuance, followed by Jinan with 78.14 billion yuan [88] - By the end of September 2024, the issuance of urban investment bonds reached 266.72 billion yuan, with some cities like Binzhou and Dongying exceeding their 2023 full-year issuance levels [87]