房地产行业行业深度报告：央国企引领专题-稳健经营优势凸显，助力央国企穿越周期央国企

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [8] Core Views - The real estate industry is bottoming out, with policy support continuing to strengthen. As of October 2024, national commercial housing sales area was 7.79 billion square meters, sales amount was 7.69 trillion yuan, and real estate development investment was 8.63 trillion yuan, representing 84.18%, 79.10%, and 89.98% of the same period last year, respectively [6] - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are increasing their presence among top developers. In 2023, 15 out of the top 30 developers by equity sales were SOEs, with 4 out of the top 5 being SOEs. The year-on-year growth rate of equity sales for SOEs in the top 30 was 7.30%, outperforming the overall top 30 developers' performance of -14.72% [7] - Industry concentration is expected to increase, with central SOEs likely to further enhance their industry position due to their strong credit background, stable operational style, and relatively low financing costs [9] Industry Overview - As of October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 7.79 billion square meters, 84.18% of the same period last year, and the cumulative sales amount was 7.69 trillion yuan, 79.10% of the same period last year. The cumulative real estate development investment was 8.63 trillion yuan, 89.98% of the same period last year [14] - The average sales price of commercial housing in 2023 was 10,437.38 yuan per square meter, while the average sales price in the first 10 months of 2024 was 9,862.06 yuan per square meter, indicating a trend of trading volume for price [17] Policy Environment - Since 2022, policies targeting demand-side have been continuously introduced. In July 2023, the Politburo meeting emphasized significant changes in the supply-demand relationship of the real estate market, and some cities introduced policies such as "recognizing housing but not loans" [23] - In 2024, the central bank introduced policies targeting both the financing side and the demand side of the real estate industry, supporting the industry's stabilization [23] Market Concentration - The number of central SOEs among top developers has increased significantly. In 2020, there were 6 central SOEs in the top 30 developers by equity sales, increasing to 15 in 2023, accounting for 50% of the top 30 [55] - The market share of central SOEs in the top 30 developers has been rising, with their equity sales growth rate outperforming the overall top 30 developers. In 2021 and 2023, the year-on-year growth rates of equity sales for central SOEs in the top 30 were 24.52% and 7.30%, respectively, compared to -5.22% and -14.72% for the overall top 30 [60] Land Acquisition Trends - Developers are increasingly focusing on core cities for land acquisition. In 2024, the proportion of land transaction value in core 22 cities reached 43.65% of the national total, up from 38.08% in 2019 [67] - Central SOEs have a significant advantage in land acquisition in core cities. In 2024, central SOEs accounted for 76.25% of the land acquisition value in core 22 cities among the top 30 developers, while non-SOEs accounted for only 23.75% [70] Financing Advantages of Central SOEs - Central SOEs have lower financing costs compared to non-SOEs. In the first half of 2024, the average financing cost for central SOEs in the top 20 developers was 3.41%, while for non-SOEs, it was 4.64% [115] - Central SOEs benefit from their strong credit background and stable operational style, allowing them to maintain a competitive edge in land acquisition and sales [110] Representative Companies - Poly Development: As of Q3 2024, Poly Development achieved sales of 241.686 billion yuan, with a market share of 3.62%. The company's sales price is significantly higher than the national average, and its land acquisition quality remains high [125] - China Merchants Shekou: In 2023, the company achieved sales of 293.7 billion yuan, ranking fifth in the industry. Its market share increased from 1.60% in 2020 to 2.52% in 2023, with a sales price exceeding 20,000 yuan per square meter [132] - China Overseas Land & Investment: In 2023, the company achieved sales of 309.8 billion yuan, with a market share of 2.66%. Its sales price in 2023 was 23,189 yuan per square meter, 122.17% higher than the national average [144] - China Resources Land: In 2023, the company achieved sales of 307.03 billion yuan, ranking fourth in the industry. Its market share increased to 2.63% in 2023, with a sales price of 23,935 yuan per square meter in H1 2024, 143.32% higher than the national average [151] - China Jinmao: In 2023, the company achieved sales of 141.2 billion yuan, with a market share of 1.21%. Its sales price in 2023 was 17,046 yuan per square meter, 63.32% higher than the national average [163]