海外宏观周报（2024年第38期）：从特朗普交易走向紧缩交易

Group 1: Market Overview - The global market has shifted from "Trump trade" to "tightening trade" following concerns over inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve signals, leading to declines in major stock indices by over 1%[9] - The U.S. CPI for October rose by 2.6% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the PPI exceeded expectations with a 2.4% increase[22][24] - Major asset classes saw significant movements, with U.S. Treasury yields rising and the dollar index increasing by 1.65%[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales for October showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.4%, slightly above expectations, but core retail sales rose only 0.1%[28] - The U.S. industrial production index decreased by 0.3% in October, indicating ongoing economic challenges[30] - The UK's GDP growth for Q3 was 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, below the expected 0.2%, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%[36] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Policy Implications - Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, with expectations for a December rate cut dropping to around 60%[13] - The tightening of monetary policy is expected to continue, with potential for only three rate cuts remaining by the end of 2025[13] Group 4: International Developments - Japan's Q3 GDP grew by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing expectations, driven by strong private consumption[39] - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index fell to -43.8, indicating declining economic confidence[38]