评特朗普胜选：全球交易模式视角

Group 1: Election Results and Political Landscape - Trump won the 2024 presidential election, securing over 270 electoral votes, indicating a decisive victory[9] - The Republican Party is projected to control both the Senate and the House of Representatives, with a 91% probability of a complete victory[15] - Trump leads in all seven swing states, with margins ranging from 2.2 to 4.6 percentage points[11] Group 2: Historical Market Trading Patterns - The report identifies eight global market trading patterns based on the performance of stocks, bonds, and commodities since 1989[8] - Historical analysis shows that Trump has the highest proportion of prosperity trading at 22.9% among the last six presidents[27] - Uncertainty trading during Trump's presidency reached 47.8%, the highest among all presidents, reflecting policy ambiguity[27] Group 3: Party Control and Economic Impact - Republican presidencies tend to have more prosperity trading and less recession trading compared to Democratic presidencies[29] - Unified control of the presidency and Congress is associated with higher inflation trading (16.3%) compared to divided control (12.5%)[33] - The report predicts that Trump's election will favor global stock markets, commodities, and increase market uncertainty[41]