海外宏观周报（2024年第37期）：特朗普当选后美联储降息路径如何调整

Group 1: Economic and Policy Changes - Trump's election victory is expected to lead to significant shifts in U.S. policy and economic direction, with a focus on tightening immigration enforcement and prioritizing tariff increases over tax cuts[9] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but future rate cut paths remain uncertain, with a more gradual approach anticipated in 2025[14] - The anticipated timeline for tax cuts is approximately one year, as they require legal processes, while tariff increases could be implemented more swiftly[10] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Trump's election, the U.S. dollar and stock markets surged, while gold and oil prices experienced significant volatility[9] - Key economic indicators show a decline in U.S. manufacturing orders, with September durable goods orders down 0.7% month-over-month and down 2.1% year-over-year[23] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 73.0, indicating improved consumer confidence, with one-year inflation expectations at 2.6%[38] Group 3: International Economic Developments - In Europe, the Eurozone's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.4% year-over-year in September, indicating a broader economic slowdown[40] - Japan's household consumption showed a nominal year-over-year increase of 1.8%, while the economic sentiment index improved to 109.5[51][53] - Germany's trade surplus decreased to €16.9 billion in September, with imports rising by 1.4% year-over-year and exports declining by 0.2%[41]