金属&新材料行业周报：美元持续走强，金属价格承压

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the metal and new materials sector [1][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the strong US dollar is putting pressure on metal prices, with a mixed performance across different metal segments [1][4]. - The report suggests a bullish long-term outlook for copper and aluminum due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the new energy sector [1][4]. - Gold prices are expected to rise due to the anticipated decline in real interest rates following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [1][4]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.91%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.89%. The non-ferrous metals index dropped by 0.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.29 percentage points [4][8]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 9.94%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.73 percentage points [4]. Price Changes - Industrial and precious metals saw varied price changes: LME copper decreased by 0.38%, aluminum by 0.96%, while gold prices on COMEX rose by 6.85% [1][8]. - Year-to-date performance shows precious metals up by 20.44%, aluminum up by 13.14%, while energy metals are down by 10.70% [8]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that copper supply is expected to be limited in 2024-2025, with demand from the new energy sector continuing to grow [1][4]. - Aluminum production in China is nearing peak levels, with slow overseas capacity additions, supporting price stability [1][4]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends关注 companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum for potential investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][4]. - For gold, companies like Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising prices [1][4]. Inventory Changes - LME copper inventory increased by 0.24% week-on-week, while Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory decreased by 7.84% [15]. - LME aluminum inventory saw a 5.18% increase, indicating a mixed inventory trend across different metals [15].