食品饮料行业周报：保持耐心，静待改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, indicating that medium to long-term opportunities are emerging as policy shifts and macroeconomic measures stabilize valuations [1][16]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that while the growth rate is not the most critical factor currently, the strategic determination and execution capabilities of companies are more important. It highlights that leading companies in the sector possess cost-effectiveness and long-term investment value [1][16]. - The report suggests that the demand in the industry is still under pressure, with expectations that company reports will continue to be challenged until after the Spring Festival in 2025. However, if positive policy combinations effectively improve income levels and expectations for businesses and households, demand could fundamentally improve [1][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 4.08% last week, with the liquor segment down 4.19%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.18 percentage points [15][33]. - The report notes that the liquor sector, particularly high-end products, is facing weak demand, influenced by promotional pricing during events like "Double 11" [2][17]. 2. Liquor Sector Analysis - Moutai's prices saw a slight increase, with the retail price for a single bottle at 2,210 RMB, up 20 RMB from the previous week. The price for a case rose to 2,255 RMB, an increase of 5 RMB [2][17]. - The report anticipates gradual demand recovery as macro policies are implemented, but advises patience as improvements will not be immediate [2][17]. 3. Food Sector Analysis - The dairy industry is expected to lead in supply-demand balance improvements, with upstream capacity reduction accelerating and raw milk prices stabilizing. The report notes that the price of white milk and yogurt has been declining for about two and a half years, indicating a prolonged adjustment period [3][18]. - The report expresses optimism for the profitability of leading companies in the dairy sector in the upcoming quarters, contingent on demand recovery [3][18]. 4. Market Performance - The food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 1.96 percentage points during the period from November 18 to November 22, 2024, with various sub-sectors also showing declines [33].