宏观和大类资产配置周报关注政治局会议对2025年经济工作的定调

Economic Overview - In October, national general public budget revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year, while expenditure rose by 10.4%[1] - The State Council is focusing on promoting the healthy development of the platform economy and stabilizing foreign trade growth through various policy measures[1] Asset Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 2.6% this week, influenced by overseas factors, while the CSI 300 stock index futures dropped by 2.9%[2] - Coking coal futures increased by 2.68%, and iron ore main contracts rose by 3.75% this week[2] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 2.08%[2] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for major asset allocation is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[3] - The political bureau meeting in December is expected to introduce targeted policies based on economic data from September and October, focusing on fiscal and monetary policy adjustments[3] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated a local government debt limit of 6 trillion yuan, with some provinces already starting issuance[3] Risk Factors - Global inflation is declining slowly, and there is uncertainty regarding the speed of economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[3] Market Insights - The A-share market is experiencing adjustments, with small-cap stocks seeing a more significant decline compared to large-cap stocks[2] - The average annualized yield of money market funds is fluctuating around 2%, with the yield of Yu'ebao decreasing by 2 basis points to 1.31%[2]